Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Economic Impact of Oklahoma´s Restrictionist Immigration Law HB1804 = $1.8 Billion

Oklahoma´s Tulsa World Reports:
The state bankers association says the loss could be $1.8 billion.
If 50,000 immigrants leave Oklahoma, the state would lose about $1.8 billion annually in productivity and wages, according to a study released Tuesday by the Oklahoma Bankers Association. The group does not take a position on HB 1804, the state's new immigration law, said President and Chief Executive Officer Roger Beverage. The study was commissioned after the association began hearing stories about banks seeing impacts such as loan defaults and halted housing developments. "Bankers asked the question, 'Can we afford to do this? Does this make sense?' " Beverage said...House Bill 1804 makes it a crime to knowingly hire, house or transport illegal immigrants and took effect Nov. 1. Economists Russell Evans and Kyle Dean, of Economic Impact Group in Edmond, wrote and researched the study. .."We're not saying that it is a good bill or a bad bill," Evans said. "We have no comment on that. But from a purely economic standpoint, we wanted to see look at what the cost would be of removing them." The Federation for Immigration Reform has estimated Oklahoma spends about $207 million a year in public funds for illegal immigrants, mainly for education, emergency health care and incarceration. The economists assume the number to be correct, Evans said. Between 50,000 and 70,000 undocumented immigrants are estimated to be living in Oklahoma, the study states. The study gives a range of impacts based on the number of immigrants who leave. In the short term, the impact ranges from a $786 million annual loss if 25,000 immigrants leave, up to a $3 billion annual loss if 90,000 migrate elsewhere, according to the study. In the long term, Oklahoma would lose between $637 million to $1.9 billion annually, the study states. "If you don't enter the impact of losing those workers into the discussion, then I think the discussion is somewhat distorted," Evans said. "All we are trying to provide is what the lost outcome of productivity and lost income of those workers would be." More House Bill 1804 impact studies are expected, Evans said. "The academic community was a little behind with everybody else," Evans said. "The bill happened so fast and became law so fast that the discussion about the impacts of the bill didn't begin until after it had been implemented and signed." ..Beverage said Oklahoma banks remain strong in spite of the challenges of the national credit crunch, depressed housing market, subprime mortgage meltdown and the Federal Reserve predictions that some community banks will fail in the next couple of years. "In addition, Oklahoma banks have had to deal with the practical ramifications of the economic impact of 1804," Beverage said. "You cannot confine the economic impact of 1804 to one sector of society or one classification of workers. Rather, it has an impact to workers in a number of different areas."


patriot said...

Short term negative economic impact. Long term net gain for the state of OK in costs vs benefits of illegals and state by state we will return to a nation of laws and a nation for Americans.

martindejesus said...

Hey patriot you mean a nation for North Americans. Those south of the USA are also "Americans".

Dee said...

Those who completed the study, the independent bankers, businesses, chambers, locals, all do not agree with you Pat. They want to rescind these restrictionist laws and they want to do this now.

uk visa said...

Thank goodness you, and a few others, are starting to talk about the true cost of trying to stifle immigration.
Most US taxpayers simply cannot afford another war; Iraq is expensive and un-won; the war on drugs is expensive and un-won; your politicians want to have a war on immigration that will be expensive... and you believe them when they say it's winnable...
There's a word for people that are taken in by such promises; and it ain't patriot.

Anonymous said...

thats why we call him/her Pat, and he/she dances to their own tune (to the it's Pat theme song)

Liquidmicro said...

Someone needs to post a link to the actual study before everybody jumps on the bandwagon of the study proves anything.

Dee said...

Martin and UKV,
Welcome to our site! Both sides ANTI and PRO discuss all Immigration issues civilly. This is a very hot issue and the cost vs benefit is often disputed. We hope you continue to join our forum and discuss these issues with us.

Anonymous said...

'Patriot' works for NumbersUSA ...

Anonymous said...

Well, the law in Oklahoma is working as intended. Undocumented workers have left the state and as a result businesses have to work harder to fill job openings. Businesses have had to raise wages in order to attract workers.

Business profits are down and wages are up.

I don't blame the business leaders for being against the law - it hits them in the pocketbook.

But i also understand why the law is so popular among the working people of Oklahoma - higher wages are a good thing as far as they are concerned

Things are really good for working people in Oklahoma right now, and getting better. Houses are affordable and jobs are plentiful. You can work a reasonable work week and afford a nice house.

Contrast that with Los Angeles- the wages in Los Angeles for many unskilled jobs are actually LOWER than Oklahoma even though houses cost five times as much.

Thank god the workers have more votes than the business owners in Oklahoma!

Dee said...

Shall we call you RB, godson to JT?


Dee said...

Actually, I have heard the opposite Anon, especially in the Tulsa area.

The MMs pushed this bill through. They were from the Tulsa area. The police Racial Profiled many people with proactive stops questioning anyone "brown" for their legal status. Even passengers. I saw many comments from Native Americans talking about this.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure what you mean, Dee.

Have you checked the jobs on offer in Oklahoma and what they pay, and have you checked those same jobs in Los Angeles?

we are discussing wages here. Los Angeles welcomes unlimited numbers of undocumented and Oklahoma has the opposite policy - just pull up the stats on wages - they will open your eyes

Anonymous said...

Of course the cheap labor, anything to make a buck groups ( chamber of commerce, banks, farmers, service and construction industries) are against the law and will spin any information about the law to their point of view. So will any ethnic special interest group. Of course as Patriot said in the beginning there will be a shortage of workers, that will remedy itself as US citizens move north for better
paying jobs and affordable housing.

There has been an outward migration of native Californians for the last 5 years. I am sure with the state budget deficit plus the rising taxes that will follow this trend will continue.

patriot said...

martin, don't be a dolt. The common term for U.S. citizens is Americans. Why get technical about it, it serves no purpose at all. Unless perhaps you have an agenda.

patriot said...

dee, of course those you mention are in the market to make money. What did you expect them to say? Duh!

patriot said...

anon, that's a lie. I work for no such organization. Don't ever assume things about people unless you can prove it. It is dishonest to do so.

patriot said...

dee, you are full of crap. People are not questioned just for being "brown". Stop you BS!

Martin said...

Hey patriot I see your true colors are coming out. lol. what are you 13 years old?

Anonymous said...

please do not refer to him as patriot, he dances to the It's Pat theme song from SNL, his name is Pat, we are on to you Pat, we see your true colors

Da Tiger said...

“The Oklahoma economy is showing no evidence of a negative impact from the law(1804).
Beverage said Oklahoma banks remain strong in spite of the challenges of the national credit crunch, depressed housing market, subprime mortgage meltdown and the Federal Reserve predictions that some community banks will fail in the next couple of years. ”

I don’t think that anybody could quantify the negative impact from 1804 here with all this other stuff happening. There are just too many variables at play here. But, just for a moment, let’s assume that the following numbers are close estimates.

National credit crunch Minus 3%
depressed housing market Minus 3 %
sub-prime mortgage meltdown Minus 3 %
community bank failures Minus 3 %

1804 solution:
Change productivity by Minus 3%

If the hiring of illegal immigrants were the ONLY cause, then deporting them would solve the problem. The error in logic with blaming illegal immigrants for all of these problems, is that the same problems occurred in states with very few illegal immigrants. These depressing statistics are the visible AFTERMATH of the real problem in ALL states. What was the initial cause? It was lack of confidence in the stock market in 2002, caused by the 9/11 attacks.
Year Dow Jones
1984 1250
1986 1800
1988 2700
1990 2900
1992 3300
1994 3900
1996 6000
1998 9000
2000 11600
2002 7286
2004 11700
2006 12200
2008 12300

Suddenly, no one had confidence in flying on an airplane. Airline stocks went down. Many other stocks went down also. Investors were losing major chunks of their money. In order to stave off further losses, many of these investors took much of their money out of the stock market, and put it into real estate. When there were more buyers than there were sellers, real estate prices increased dramatically.
Now, let’s say that Charlie has been saving for 10 years to make a down payment on a house. He started looking for the ideal purchase in 2002, and found that his ideal price range would be about $100,000. In the summer of 2003, he finds the perfect house. The problem now is that the asking price of the house is $150,000. He cannot bid low because other buyers are bidding higher than the asking price. When he went to the bank the previous year, the bank qualified him for the $100,000. That is all he can afford with conventional financing. Banks are in the business of making money from interest. So, instead of losing the closing fees, the bank tells Charlie that he can still afford his dream house, if uses a sub-prime loan. It has an adjustable rate mechanism that will allow him to pay an “affordable” rate now. The monthly payment will go up in a few years, but he will probably be earning more money anyway. Even if he isn’t making more, he can always sell the house for even more money, and still make a profit. What a deal. He goes for it.
In the meantime, the stock market recovers, and many investors sell their real estate holdings, and start pumping it back into the stock market. The stock market continues to make a steady recovery. The Dow-Jones even spiked on July 19, 2007 to over 14,000. Now, let’s take another look at the real estate market. All of a sudden, everybody is trying to sell, but there are FEWER buyers. Charlie didn’t get the raise he expected. His adjustable rate just kicked in, and increased his monthly payment, which he can no longer afford. And he can’t sell his house. Nobody is buying. Add another house to the foreclosure list. Sorry, Charlie.

patriot said...

martin, true colors? What does that mean? I am opposed to illegal immigration as most Americans are. What are your true colors?

No hateful one, I am not 13 years old. I am a semi-retired male in my 60's. You must be 5 years old to make nasty assumptions about others.

Dee said...

Welcome, Da Tiger.
You bring some interesting facts.
I do agree there are a number of issues impacting the Economy. Illegal Immigrants are not the root cause nor the sole factor.

Please come back and visit us often! You bring some helpful insights into our discussion.

Anonymous said...


patriot said...

Uh anon, dee isn't Mexican. She is however an American on paper only.

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