Saturday, December 22, 2007

Migrants from Arizona Returning Home!

"I don't want to live here because of the new law and the oppressive environment," he said. "I'll be better in my country."

PHOENIX, Arizona (AP) -- Illegal immigrants in Arizona, frustrated with a flagging economy and tough new legislation cracking down on their employers, are returning to their home countries or trying their luck in other states.
For months, immigrants have taken a wait-and-see attitude toward the state's new employer-sanctions law, which takes effect January 1. The voter-approved legislation is an attempt to lessen the economic incentive for illegal immigrants in Arizona, the busiest crossing point along the U.S.-Mexico border. And by all appearances, it's starting to work. "People are calling me telling me about their friend, their cousin, their neighbors -- they're moving back to Mexico," said Magdalena Schwartz, an immigrant-rights activist and pastor at a Mesa church. "They don't want to live in fear, in terror."
...Under the employer sanctions law, businesses found to have knowingly hired illegal workers will be subject to sanctions from probation to a 10-day suspension of their business licenses. A second violation would bring permanent revocation of the license.
...State Rep. Russell Pearce of Mesa, the author of the employer sanctions law, said his intent was to drive illegal immigrants out of Arizona. "I'm hoping they will self-deport," Pearce said. "They broke the law. They're criminals." Under the employer sanctions law, businesses found to have knowingly hired illegal workers will be subject to sanctions from probation to a 10-day suspension of their business licenses. A second violation would bring permanent revocation of the license.
Nancy-Jo Merritt, an immigration lawyer who primarily represents employers, said her clients already have started to fire workers who can't prove they are in the country legally. "Workers are being fired, of course," she said. "Nobody wants to find out later on that they've got somebody working for them who's not here legally." When immigrants don't have jobs, they don't stick around, said Dawn McLaren, a research economist at Arizona State University who specializes in illegal immigration. She said the flagging economy, particularly in the construction industry, also is contributing to an immigrant exodus. "As the jobs dwindle and the environment becomes more unpleasant in more ways than one, you then decide what to do, and perhaps leaving looks like a good idea," she said. "And certainly that creates a problem, because as people leave, they take the jobs they created with them."
Pearce disagreed that the Arizona economy will suffer after illegal immigrants leave, saying there will be less crime, lower taxes, less congestion, smaller classroom sizes and shorter lines in emergency rooms. "We have a free market. It'll adjust," he said. "Americans will be much better off." He said he's not surprised illegal immigrants are leaving the state and predicts that more will go once the employer-sanctions law takes effect next month. "It's attrition by enforcement," he said. "As you make this an unfriendly state for lawbreakers, I'm hoping they will pick up and leave."

63 comments:

Liquidmicro said...

"She said the flagging economy, particularly in the construction industry, also is contributing to an immigrant exodus. "As the jobs dwindle and the environment becomes more unpleasant in more ways than one, you then decide what to do, and perhaps leaving looks like a good idea," she said. "And certainly that creates a problem, because as people leave, they take the jobs they created with them.""


How can, "As the jobs dwindle and the environment becomes more unpleasant in more ways than one, you then decide what to do, and perhaps leaving looks like a good idea." equate to her next sentence of, "And certainly that creates a problem, because as people leave, they take the jobs they created with them." How can they take the jobs with them if the jobs themselves are dwindling?? This woman makes little to no since. They may be taking there skills with them, but they are not taking jobs they created with them.

Now, who says 'Enforcement through Attrition' doesn't work??!!

Dee said...

Liquid,
I believe we need to use Arizona as a Case Study. The law goes into effect on 1/1. The illegal immigrants are leaving.

The businesses that are leaving are, as in NJ, the additional businesses created, goods purchased for the illegal immigrants and the taxes paid by them.

Examples:
. Walmart, Malls, local shops, movie theatres, etc. may lose millions in sales.
. Construction may stop due to lack of workers.
. Mom &Pop Contractors may go out of business since they previously hired under the table.
. Mexican Restaurants and Shopping Centers catering to Hispanics may close shop due to lack of sales.
. Cities and Towns may go out of business because not only will they stop collecting Tax Revenue, but they will have reduced revenue for all of the above.

That is what she is talking about.

If it is true, we will see the effects in the months ahead. Let´s track it.

Liquidmicro said...

Examples:
. Walmart, Malls, local shops, movie theatres, etc. may lose millions in sales.

If it is all combined it may amount to millions. However, wal-mart may also be losing money due to contaminated toys.

. Construction may stop due to lack of workers.

Construction is only stopping on the housing side, the commercial side is still catching up.

. Mom &Pop Contractors may go out of business since they previously hired under the table.

The Mom & Pop contractors are actually the ones hiring legal workers. It's the larger companies, and subs that will be losing since they paid the 'Illegals' the cheap wages, thus, Mom & Pop are becoming better off and more competitive.

. Mexican Restaurants and Shopping Centers catering to Hispanics may close shop due to lack of sales.

Most Americans like Mexican food, they may lose some sales, but I don't think they will go out of business, shops that cater specifically to the 'Illegals' DESERVE to go out of business.

. Cities and Towns may go out of business because not only will they stop collecting Tax Revenue, but they will have reduced revenue for all of the above.

Small cities and towns were surviving prior to the influx of 'Illegals', they will continue to survive after they are gone. Some may eventually become ghost towns, but that is what happens naturally, anyway.

patriot said...

This is exactly what should be happening nationwide. The employers are being punished and the illegals are leaving.

We can get back to business just as we always had before millions of illegal aliens flooded our country and as the article states we will be better off tax wise, jobs wise and less crowded schools, jails and hospitals. Any economical setback is well worth it as a trade off for all of the above.

Dee said...

Liquid,
I think we are in sync.
We agree that some business will fall off and taxes paid will be reduced.

I want to study to the economy and the impact. This will be a good study to determine the actual impacts. This way we can determine the actual results and impacts.

I hope most illegal immigrants leave Arizona. We need to see what happens when laws like this are strongly enforced. It will prove, once and for all, which perspective is accurate and the impacts, plus or minus, on the economy.

Liquidmicro said...

I don't think its a difference of which perspective is accurate or correct. Its more, showing that if the laws that are on the books would have been enforced as they should have been from 1986 until present, we wouldn't be in this mess now.

Dee said...

No. I disagree my friend.

What this will tell us is, if AZ is devastated, and if we enact the stringent laws nationwide, so goes the nation.

Liquidmicro said...

I agree with that, the difference was in regards to the PRO verse the ANTI side. Which way to solve the problem.

Don't read to much into what I say and try to interpret, as my comment was to be further along than where you are discussing.

patriot said...

dee, what you don't get is that it doesn't and shouldn't matter what the economic effect might be. Immigrants should come here legally and no other way. We need to return to a nation of laws no matter what the short term cost might or might not be and not reward illegal aliens for breaking our laws.

Dee said...

Pat,
As long as you refuse to study the history of immigration in our country, all I can say to you is, "time will tell."

ultima said...

"They don't want to live in fear, in terror."

Surely this is the grossest form of exaggeration. Even the worst criminals rarely live in fear or in terror. What are they afraid of-- that they will have to do home sooner rather than later? If the government catches them, they get a free ride home. If they leave on their own accord, they will do it on their own dime as they should. There is no need for fear or terror in either case.

ultima said...

Tom Brokaw's latest report from Marshall, Iowa suggests that the pro-legals were right all along. The Mexicans there are multiplying like rabbits and because of that they are not assimilating. They can find an expatriate Mexican, now a citizen because of our misbegotten immigration laws, who will be happy to sell them a home in a Marshall Mexican enclave where they can live the same culture they lived in Mexico while partaking fully of America's largess with free education, emergency room care and social services. The schools are essentially already bi-lingual in their signage if not in their programs.

The myopic mayor, of course, praises their contribution to the tax base through the businesses they have opened and their purchasing power. Incredibly shortsighted, he fails to see where all this will lead as other Americans are also asleep at the switch and equally ostrich-like.

ultima said...

"And certainly that creates a problem, because as people leave, they take the jobs they created with them."

What jobs? In the sentence or so before she speaks of the flagging economy and the downturn in the construction industry. The jobs they created except for their own brethren are already gone. What comes first the chicken or the egg? One can argue that more immigrants create greater demand for more products and more jobs --- largely taken by those same immigrants. Sounds like we are chasing our tail if we depend on population-driven economic growth.

ultima said...

"I hope most illegal immigrants leave Arizona."

This may not be a true test as long as the other 49 states welcome them. A true test would be if this were to be applied nationally. Where would they go then to find a new job? Canada? Mexico?

I think a different kind of case study would be interesting. Let's ask someone to study Marshall, Iowa with the objective of revealing what that city will look like 50 and 100 years from now based on the current trend. What will be the population? What will be the tax base as compared with community needs for schools and hospitals? What language will they be speaking? What will be the culture? How closely will it resemble Mexico's?

ultima said...

"What this will tell us is, if AZ is devastated, and if we enact the stringent laws nationwide, so goes the nation."

Economic growth at what price????

Liquidmicro said...

Congressional study shows illegal immigrants sap tax dollars

Link to the CBO Document is at the end of the summary.

patriot said...

dee, who says that I haven't read about the history of immigration? You don't know me! It doesn't matter anyway. We still have to abide by the immigration laws we have TODAY no matter what!

patriot said...

I guess dee is just like the greedy employers who hire illegal aliens, anything for a buck! What kind of a priority is that?

Dee said...

The fear and terror they are speaking of Ulty is the terror they realize if captured by someone like Sheriff Arpaio or the MMs.

patriot said...

Oh sure, dee. Right, the Sheriff commits violent acts against illegal aliens and so do the MM, lol.

Your usage of words of fear and terror are just dramatic attempts to seek sympathy for your illegal amigos.

Dee said...

Ulty, calling people rabbits is hardly respectful.
These new Citizens are more than welcomed in Iowa.
I think Tom Brokaw did a good job on his video. The mayor and the city are happy with all of the Hispanic Visitors who are bringing business and paying taxes.

brokaw video immigration iowa

patriot said...

dee, you can't really be that dense can you or are you playing word games again? The video was mostly about illegal Mexicans living and working in Marshalltown, Iowa, not Hispanic citizens.

Dee said...

Ulty, No backing out of this now. This will be a great test. What are the impacts to a state that enacts very strict immigration laws and the illegal immigrants and associated businesses, taxes, revenue leave?

I want to see all of the ANTIs assumptions occur.
. Increase Wages at all low wage jobs. eg. McDonalds now pays $6 an hour. Double it to a living wage $12. The price of a burger goes from $3 to $6.
. No farm workers. All fruits and vegetables trucked in. Tomatoes and Potatoes go from $2 a pound to $6 a pound. Eggs go from $2 a dozen to $6 a dozen.
. Fewer specialy restaurants and shops. All out of business.

Let´s see a true picture of the impacts of a state without Hispanic immigrants.


Ulty quote:
"This may not be a true test"

patriot said...

There goes dee again wanting us to go along with her advocacy for the almighty buck rather than morality aka following our laws. You call yourself a Christian, dee? You sound just like those greedy businesses and the Republicans that you don't like.

patriot said...

The increase in wages for American workers and less taxes due to not having to pay the social costs of illegal aliens and lower home prices due to less demand, will more than cover the increased cost of a hamburger.

The need for agricultural workers has never been in question so that kills that part of your argument.

We do need some LEGAL immigrants but not just Hispanic ones and certainly not the illegal ones.

Dee said...

Liquid,
What I find interesting is the one item which causes the costs is Education. "education, which the study notes is the largest single expenditure in state and local budgets"

I find it interesting that your side continues to chirp and chirp about Assimilation, yet the single item that results in additional costs for the states is Education.

ultima said...

"Ulty, No backing out of this now."

I'm not trying to back out of anything since I was not the one that characterized Oklahoma as a true test. I will be interested in the result but I believe that will be only half of the story. The other half, as I suggested, would be a study of a place like Marshall, Iowa that apparently plans to allow illegal aliens to flood their city unabated. Aren't you interested in what that trend will mean and how it might be extrapolated to the rest of American, even Oklahoma. In other words, it raises the question, what will be the result in 50 or 100 years if steps like Oklahoma's are not taken all across the country. I believe and have always believed the answer is Mexico Norte. Moreover, I believe your gloating about the growth of the Hispanic population suggests that you also realize that Hispanicization of America is well underway. You just haven't faced up to the fact that this will mean Mexico Norte with all its ills, corruption and oligarchs.

The Brokaw video puts the quietus on your protestations that they are assimilating. Iowans who live there ought to know and they say two things: they do have an economic impact and they aren't assimilating, i.e. they are creating a microcosm of Mexico Norte. The video also illustrates a major defect in our immigration laws. They permit illegals to become citizens and realtors. That should never happen. At least the realtor was honest in saying, "I'm never going back." The thing she does not realize and does not understand that by her very presence she is in the process of recreating the very conditions she left Mexico to escape. Pretty dumb not to understand that elementary fact!

I didn't suggest that Mexicans are little furry creatures with long ears. Obviously I was alluding to their habits of excessive procreation.

Incidentally on the best of SNL last night, a story was related about the release or escape of 17,000 minks. The commentator said, "There was more fur out there than on Friday nights at Wellesley."

ultima said...

"I find it interesting that your side continues to chirp and chirp about Assimilation, yet the single item that results in additional costs for the states is Education."

And the connection is...?

ultima said...

And your side continues to chirp that assimilation is taking place without taking into account the long term trend, the large number of Spanish-speaking enclaves replete with transplanted Mexican culture. How can the result be other than: Mexifornia -- A state of becoming or Mexico Norte.

Don't you see any potential for an adverse impact on your lifestyle or will you simply move into a gated white community and let the world go by?

ultima said...

I applaud the migrants from Arizona who are returning home and I am prepared to endure whatever the economic consequences are if that helps to save our country.

A $6 hamburger is not an oddity even now in any place except the fast food joints.

ultima said...

"I think Tom Brokaw did a good job on his video. The mayor and the city are happy with all of the Hispanic Visitors who are bringing business and paying taxes."

You left out the key statement he made in closing: the people are concerned because the illegals aren't assimilating and are forming Spanish-speaking enclaves -- or something to that effect, in a word Mexico Norte.

Liquidmicro said...

What is it that you don't understand about it, Dee?? I'll see if I can help explain it to you.

Liquidmicro said...

Dee says:
"Let´s see a true picture of the impacts of a state without Hispanic immigrants."

I say: Lets see a true picture of a state with Hispanic Immigrants!!

Population is up thanks to births and foreign immigrants, but rest of U.S. isn't California dreamin' like it was.

And how about the effects to schools.
Schwarzenegger will declare a fiscal emergency. Schools could lose $1.4 billion and thousands of inmate could be freed early.

Dee said...

Ulty,
I have always said we live in a multi cultural society and the key to success is Education.
I have not waivered from my position.

So your claim to my wanting Mexico Norte is totally FALSE.

Dee said...

Ulty,
Secondly, as I have said all along, it takes a generation to assimilate as it does with any other new immigrant. It has not been yet a generation for Iowa. We all know the children and the children´s children are "Americanized".

Dee said...

Ulty, The realtor is a citizen. Even though she was born in MX, she is a citizen. She IS home!

(It takes a generation to fully assimilate)

Dee said...

I don´t live in a gated White Community, rather a gated multi cultural community!

Liquidmicro said...

She has been here a total of 11 years, her first 5 years as an "Illegal Immigrant". She states the only reason for staying here now is because her kids are getting married, which were also 'Illegal Immigrants' at one time. It does not state how she became a citizen.

Dianne said...

I have a question, actually two. If an American woman went to Mexico and had a child there, would her child automatically be a citizen of Mexico? Also, if a child of a Mexican citizen is born in the United States, is it also a citizen of Mexico?

patriot said...

More like multi-racial. We are all Americans culturally.

adam brown said...

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ultima said...

"I don´t live in a gated White Community, rather a gated multi cultural community!"

I know, I know but you might have to give that a second thought in Mexico Norte!

Liquidmicro said...

Diane, the answer to your questions are
1.Yes Mexican Constitution as of 2002
2.Yes

ultima said...

"The realtor is a citizen. Even though she was born in MX, she is a citizen. She IS home!

(It takes a generation to fully assimilate)"

I understand the former. The question is: what loophole in our immigration laws allows illegal aliens to become citizens. Seems like if we are serious about the illegals this should be prohibited.

What conditions would have to exist before some conclude there is no need to assimilate? Are we headed in that direction?

ultima said...

"We all know the children and the children´s children are "Americanized"."

It didn't look like it from the scene in the school. It looked like two different countries.

ultima said...

"So your claim to my wanting Mexico Norte is totally FALSE."

I believe you however, is it within the realm of possibility whether you want it or not?

Sorry to be such a pessimist on this but there is a lot at stake for both of us and our families.

Dee said...

Dianne, Any child born in the US is a US citizen. Birthright Citizenship or Jus Soli
definition.

Dee said...

Loophole? What are you talking about Ulty.

You know 40 to 50% of those you term illegal came here legally (like Lupita) and their legal status lapped. Most just go to court and get back into legal status until they become citizens or return to their land of origin. You know this. I know Lupita has shared this info a number of times.

Anonymous said...

In my humble opinion, the exodus of illegals from Arizona will have multiple effects

(1) higher wages for citizens who are unskilled

(2) higher prices for products and services done by the unskilled

(3)lower taxes for all taxpayers since the huge cost of providing healthcare and education to the illegals goes down

I guess the clearest benefit will go to citizens that are today "working poor" they probably don't have a lot of money left over to eat at restaurants or hire someone to clean their house, so they will benefit from the higher wages without being hurt much by the higher prices

Theoretically the group to be hurt the most is people who spend lots of money locally but don't work locally - perhaps retired people will be hurt by the higher prices without benefitting from the higher wages



With regard to taxes, think about it, if an illegal immigrant earns $35k per year, at MOST $10k of that is going to taxes. School for his kids and state funded medical care for his kids can easily be $40k per year. It is OBVIOUS that this immigrant is a drain on the taxpayers.



Let's watch what happens in Arizona. I am certain that the changes there will be celebrated by most people

Anonymous said...

At the end of the day, I predict the US will sort out with some states adopting the Arizona plan and some the California plan

Then the citizens of the US can decide what sort of society they want to live in by moving to a state with an immigration policy that they like

Nothing wrong with letting people choose

Dee said...

Anon,
There is too much wishful thinking in your post.

Here is the reality.
The Americans who are unemployed are not going to go do jobs the migrants were doing.
Look at Michigan. They closed down several auto plants over the last 2 years. Did any of those auto workers go up north and pick cherries? No.
Did the cherry farmers increase pay? No.
Would the auto workers have gone to the cherry fields even if the wages went from $6 to $10 an hour? No.

We all need to face reality.

Dee said...

So would the auto workers who might have gone to Traverse City to pick cherries for $10 an hour have a lot of money left over to hire someone to clean their house? No. Waaaay too much wishful thinking here!

Dee said...

What I believe will happen is,

1. the migrants will leave the state.
2. the associated businesses will close.
3. there will be a labor shortage so those businesses will close.
4. there will be an outrcy from the locals themselves blaming the local ANTIs for all of their woes. Newspaper articles will be published. the local communities will be in an uproar. All will chastise Sheriff Arpaio and his band of violence.
5. There will be a public outcry to rescind the laws by June.

Dee said...

I agree.

This law comes enforce so we can ALL see the results just in time for the elections.

There is nothing wrong with letting the people decide.

patriot said...

dee, you keep going over the same things again. We already discussed the laid off auto workers. Why would they leave their homes 250 miles away to pick cherries? It is like asking a dentist to take an auto mechanic's job and then on top of that compute a long distance to do that job for much less pay. Your arguments are simply ridiculous but you keep dragging the same old ones out of the closet ever so often and they are as lame as the first time you brought them up.

What is this violence you speak of in regards to the Sheriff? Lying again, dee?

You are wrong, most cities and states will be rejoicing when the illegals leave.

Anonymous said...

When you look at the big picture, there are also other people from other nations that are here illegally, not just from our the southern border neighbour! Therefore, proposing these rules will not only hurt Mexicans but other foreign born nationals.

Now, if I were the President of Mexico, I would proposed that all Illegal US citizens living and that own businesses in Mexico should be arrested at once and be deported back to US, and all their property should be rendered the property of Mexico.
I would also propose that other nations take similar action reguarding and imposing the strictist penalities on US foreign nationals.

Now concering Iraq, any soilder found guilty of any crime should not be granted immunity but must suffer under the harsh penality of their laws, just as how we have treated other foreign nationals!

Now play on The Mariachi Band, play on!!

Liquidmicro said...

Anon, your assumptions are far fetched.

The big picture is that by imposing existing laws, which should have been imposed since 1986, non of this would be to the extent it is today, from Mexico or any other country. Enforcement through attrition is working, by cracking down on the magnet, jobs/employers. Now, if Arizona and Oklahoma can do it, so can the rest of the USA.

Your Mexico hypothetical, is your opinion. The 'Illegals' that are repatriating themselves are going back to their countries with all their spoils, earned 'Illegally' with no strings attached, maybe we should stop them at the border and confiscate all that they have??!!.

If Mexico chose to deport and or arrest the 'Illegals' there, that would be their choice, after all it is there country.

As for Iraq, if soldiers are caught committing crimes, then UCMJ takes care of it, unless your opinion is that the war is 'Illegal' and our soldiers are all criminals, for which, it is your opinion, and it differs from mine, I consider our soldiers hero's.

I think maybe you should go back and read through Dee's entire blog, understand where we all come from and where we are now.

dianne said...

Liquid...thanks for the info. I was curious and a little surprised that Mexico allows outright citizenship for children born on their soil of foreign parents. That changes my mind a bit about so-called "anchor babies" from Mexico born on American soil. Apparently, duel citizenship is given by both countries so I would have a hard time denying one and not the other irregardless of the social benefits of the particular country.

When talking about the impact of illegal immigrants leaving and the impact on employers in Arizona, I think employers will clean up their act and ultimately increase their wages. Prices will increase some, but only to the point where sales start to drop off because people quit buying the particular item and things will eventually normalize. Regarding the construction industry, there was a time not too long ago (a decade or so) when most construction jobs were filled by American citizens/legal workers. These workers did enjoy very good wages and there was no problem finding workers willing to do roofing, drywalling or basically anything on a construction job site because those were good paying jobs.

Besides deporting criminal illegal immigrants, I believe enforcing employment laws is the single most critical thing this country can do to get illegal immigration under control.

patriot said...

anon, if there are Americans living in Mexico illegally, Mexico has every right to deport them and IMO should do so.

diane, I agree with most of your post except on birthright citizenship. Why should we mirror Mexico, especially since their illegal citizens have been abusing it in our country? I don't think there are many Americans giving birth on Mexican soil in that way. Most countries require that at least one parent of the newborn be a ciizen of that country in order for them to gain birthright citizenship. This only makes sense and passing legislation to make that change only makes sense too.

dianne said...

Patriot - The issue with anchor babies is not that they get citizenship. It is the benefits that go with that citizenship such as medicaid, food stamps, etc. That is an incentive for illegal immigrants to have babies here. I could support a change in law that would have a waiting period (for example 2-5 years) for such benefits if neither of the parents are legal citizens.

Liquidmicro said...

New law to revoke biz license for employing illegals

It seems Tennessee is going by way of Arizona now too.

patriot said...

diane, I don't understand your position on the 2-5 year waiting period for citizenship for children born of illegal aliens. Why give them citizenship at all? You are still creating an incentive for illegals to come here to give birth with your plan.

patriot said...

diane, I don't understand your position on the 2-5 year waiting period for citizenship for children born of illegal aliens. Why give them citizenship at all? You are still creating an incentive for illegals to come here to give birth with your plan.

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