Monday, January 12, 2009

Conservative Pundit Kondracke Predicts Comprehensive Immigration Reform May Pass in 2009!

Conservative Pundit Mort Kondracke (Fox News-Beltway Boys) says there is a strong possibility Comprehensive Immigration Reform may pass in 2009. The PRO Immigration Reformers have found their Sea Legs with their strong Latino Democratic showing in this year's election and are pushing their agenda with President Obama. Meanwhile, President Bush said one of his biggest failures was not pushing CIR strongly enough and he pandered to the Republican base with his workplace raids, mass deportation efforts and rigorous employment verification.
Kondracke said the ANTI Immigration Reformers will continue to push their so called "ANTI Amnesty" (Mass Deportation) platform, but to no avail. He believes if CIR is not passed this year, at least key Immigration issues, including Ag-Jobs plus, Reduction of the Immigration Backlog and passage of the Dream Act, may be passed in 2009. I agree with this list. In addition, I would add: an end to the 287(g) programs (e.g. Arpaio racial profiling) and the reduction of workplace raids/Detention Centers. For these two, there is no need for Federal legislation.
We will see if my predictions come true in 2009.
Reform Is Coming On Immigration, But Problems Remain
By Mort Kondracke
Given last year's election results, major immigration reform ought to pass in 2009 - but first, the incoming Obama administration has to decide what to do about some draconian policies put into place by the Bush administration. After failing to pass its own reform bill in 2007, Bush & Co. launched a policy of high-visibility workplace raids, mass deportation and rigorous employment verification designed to show that they were tough on illegal immigration. President-elect Barack Obama denounced the raids during the campaign, but canceling George W. Bush's policies could open the new administraton to charges that it's "soft" on enforcement - especially at a time of high unemployment among American workers...
The best solution - as even Bush officials acknowledge - is to pass comprehensive immigration reform that would control the U.S. borders; allow in a regular flow of immigrant workers, especially for agricultural jobs; and identify and legalize the status of otherwise law-abiding illegal residents and give them a chance to become citizens.
Bush acknowledged in an interview published Tuesday that, in retrospect, he erred in not pushing for immigration reform after his re-election and in trying for Social Security reform instead. His Social Security initiative failed and, by the time Congress got around to considering immigration reform, anti-immigrant groups and right-wing radio talk-show hosts had whipped the Republican base - and GOP Members of Congress - into a frenzy of opposition to "amnesty" and insecure borders, killing that initiative, too...
"But given that Congress has not passed it (Immigration Reform), the most important thing we can do is enforce the law the way it has been written, and therefore we've arrested record numbers of illegal aliens ... and we've deported almost 350,000 in the past year. That is a record." Chertoff also reported that he'd doubled the size of the Border Patrol, built nearly 500 miles of fencing along the Mexican border and increased "worksite enforcement actions" by 27 percent - all to reduce illegal immigration and restore lost credibility for the federal government.
Longtime immigration reform advocate Frank Sharry, now director of America's Voice, said that "Chertoff worked admirably" for reform, "but after it failed, what he did was disgraceful. He let the enforcement cowboys loose on residential neighborhoods, conducted those employment raids that mainly targeted helpless workers, not the employers, and terrorized the immigrant community," Sharry charged. He said, "the administration was heavily responsible" for the fact that Latino turnout jumped 40 percent in 2008 over 2004, and went from 56 percent Democratic to 66 percent.
In 22 Congressional races where an "enforcement hawk" was running against an advocate of comprehensive reform, the reformer won in 20, according to America's Voice.
The election results have encouraged reform advocates to expect that Obama will push for comprehensive reform this fall. He's declared it a "top priority" of his administration and it was the focus of one of his transition task forces. Members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and various immigration groups are holding events this week to press the cause.
Precisely what a reform package should contain, however, is uncertain. Hispanic Members of Congress and most pro-immigration groups definitely want it to include a certain path to citizenship for illegal residents who have clean records and pay a fine. Others, like Rick Swartz, founder of the National Immigration Forum, thinks that - in spite of Democratic domination of the government and the party's promises - "amnesty" for up to 12 million illegal immigrants could still derail reform in Congress. He advocates an incremental policy of "Ag Jobs-Plus" - passage of a widely supported bill, sponsored by Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.) and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), to admit agricultural workers seasonally and let them earn green cards over a period of years, plus measures to reduce the years-long backlog of people waiting to join family members in the United States. Swartz's agenda also would include passing the DREAM Act, allowing 1 million students brought into the U.S. illegally as children to become citizens, and giving green cards to 600,000 or so holders of high-skill H-1B visas.
Because of massive job losses by American workers and opposition from the AFL-CIO, most reformers this year are willing to drop a provision in previous legislation allowing non-agricultural workers to enter the United States and eventually become legal residents.
The Obama transition team reportedly has recommended creation of a commission to recommend solutions to any issues not included in legislation the administration backs in the fall. Matters covered in legislation and left to the commission might depend on how strong 2010 election prospects are for Democrats from conservative states and districts.

Even though they were trounced in 2008, anti-immigration forces are still ready to agitate for expulsion (mass deportation) - not legalization - of illegal immigrants. And they have high U.S. unemployment operating in their favor. So, in spite of his promises and the vote in November, it will still take courage and political skill for Obama to figure out how to do the right thing, and do it.

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Anti-"immigration"? LOL!

ultima said...

Dee wrote, "Even though they were trounced in 2008, anti-immigration forces are still ready to agitate for expulsion (mass deportation) - not legalization - of illegal immigrants. And they have high U.S. unemployment operating in their favor."

As always you overlook the obvious facts of the past election in favor of your own spin: a grossly unpopular president, a financial catastrophe, two wars, etc.

It would be a mistake to read law enforcement into the causes except way down the line. Most expect that if Obama breaks his pick on the financial crisis, and he has only two years to do otherwise, this Congressional victory will be shortlived.

Here's a few predictions from another source:

(1) Websites and mass emails offering "free grants," courtesy of the government and "Obama's wealth redistribution ." (Actually, thisone's a freebie, because there is an email with a date and time stamp of literally minutes after Obama was declared the winner, offeringexactly that.) (2) Israel will understand this election was the end of any type of assistance, military or otherwise, from the U.S., and will stop holding back their defense at the request of the American administration. (3)Look for a first strike on Iran soon, as well as increased activity by the Israeli military in general. (4)Israel is on her own now, and God help us all because of it. - (5)Look for Iranian retaliation--against American targets. That goes doubly for other terrorist organizations. (6) We just elected a man with the full endorsement of every major terrorist group in the world as leader of the free world. (It's the political equivalent of hiring a child molester to babysit your kids while you leave for the weekend. Not only is HE going to have fun with your child, but he'll probably sit and watch while his friends come over and do it too.) (7) Look for far-left justices appointed to the Supreme Court ,effectively tying up the entire government in a trifecta of liberal humanism. (8)We'll see more of the buzzwords and empty platitudes like "hope and change." (9) An ultimate goal of socialism--and soon,sharia law. (10) Military cases of troops being tried and convicted for killing the enemy in combat will continue to rise--and the conviction/plea-bargain rate will stay at nearly 100%, as the government seeks to use the best men and women this country has to offer as sacrificial lambs on the altar of global appeasement.(Those brave and honorable men who currently reside in prison cells across the country, stripped of their rank, their careers, families,and their good name, will not taste free air again for many years.Their sacrifices and their stories will be forgotten by the general public, remembered only by those of us who continue to fight for them.) (11) Look for the slow but steady erosion of rights you have enjoyed for your entire lives--all the while being told it's "for your own good." (12) Restrictions on gun ownership, home schooling, encouraged dependence on the ever-growing federal government. More nanny-state provisions will be put into place to protect the "disadvantaged" and the"poor," (read: lazy, uneducated, unwilling to better themselves)even while groups like the unborn, the mentally handicapped,elderly, and terminally ill are slowly pushed toward euthanasia. (13)Ofcourse, this will be done with feel-good phrases like "death with dignity," "not wanting to be a burden," and "merciful release from suffering," all of which ignore the basic fact that we are killing people without their consent for the "good of the people." Let's just remember that Barack Obama was the ONLY senator in the Illinois state senate to vote against providing medical care for babies who were inconsiderate enough to survive an abortion. (14)Also, look for taxes to go up. Yes, they'll go up. - You think the economy is bad now? Just wait. You'll have the most expensive "free" health care ever. (15) Bread lines won't be just for Russians anymore.

ultima said...

How much longer can Obama laughing boy above continue his charade? He's fiddling while Rome is burning. CIR should be the farthest thing from his mind even though he pandered to the Hispanic community offering what amounts to open borders. He'll find a heap of other more pressing matters that need his attention waiting for him on his desk. Also he would have to be pretty stupid to ignore unemployment as it relates to CIR. Just think how that picture would improve if illegals were to be systematically repatriated over the period of his presidency.

ultima said...

Mass deportations!! LOL LOL

ultima said...

Dee wrote, "Meanwhile, President Bush said one of his biggest failures was not pushing CIR strongly enough and he pandered to the Republican base with his workplace raids, mass deportation efforts and rigorous employment verification."

Everyone knows by now that W's judgment was impaired from day one. This is just another example of that. He has no idea what he is talking about. I hope in a few days it will be the last we hear of him and his disastrous presidency. He's got the illegal alien thing wrong like everything else.

ultima said...

Dee wrote, "Bush & Co. launched a policy of high-visibility workplace raids, mass deportation and rigorous employment verification designed to show that they were tough on illegal immigration."

Perhaps he finally go the message. The word "belatedly" should be inserted above.

Anonymous said...

The Dream Act will pass in 2009.

Jordan said...

Mort Kondracke is not a "conservative." He is a moderate Democrat; he and Fred Barnes go at it all the time.

He and Fred do agree on CIR. Fred Barnes is one of those globalist, free trade Republicans.

This is not a conservative-liberal issue. It is nationalist vs. globalist. And not all Democrats are liberal Democrats either. And not every pundit on Fox is a conservative. There are liberals, Dems, Republicans, conservatives, libertarians, moderates.

Also, I believe you are misinterpreting the election results. As ultima pointed out, people voted on a variety of issues. The economy, Iraq war were top of the list for most people, not immigration. People wanted a change after eight years of Republicans and Bush. Many of the Democrats who were elected to Congress ran on anti-amnesty platforms.

The American people shut down the Senate switchboard during the last attempt to pass CIR and that was before the financial collapse. I can't imagine that they would be in favor of it at the height of a recession with jobs disappearing.

Dee said...

Ultima,
These are Kondracke's perceptions, although I do agree with them.

Ultima said...
As always you overlook the obvious facts of the past election in favor of your own spin: a grossly unpopular president, a financial catastrophe, two wars, etc.

The Arizonian said...

IF CIR passes this year (or at all in the future) I will be surprised. I believe CIR has become an electable issue, something to campaign on, meaning it will have dashes of bills but no real meat.

CIR is "The abortion issue" of the 21st century.

Dee said...

Ultima,
Kit Lange's predictions are pretty far fetched.
She is a nutcase looking to get a name for herself.

I found these remarks of hers very telling:
"The eyes of Obama and McCain were also telling. McCain acted with class and grace in his concession speech, offering the most honorable response I've seen yet... His eyes were clear and sincere, honest. His speech underlined the very reasons why, of the two men offered, he was hands down the best choice.

On the other hand, Obama's eyes were cold, calculating. "


She may be a veteran but her words are so out of touch with reality!

Dee said...

Jordan,
Most on the left view Kondracke as Conservative or a centrist at best.
I agree with your point that from a Conservative perspective, this is a Nationalist vs Globalist issue.
This is also a Humanitarian vs Non-Humanitarian issue.

Regarding the Election results, a number of Conservative publications, Colin Powell, the RNC Chairman Candidate Debate and other forums have clearly stated a need change strategy and woo the Latino and minority vote because their current conservative agenda is NOT working.

Regarding shutting down the Senate switchboard, we all know that sites such as alipac, numbersusa, fair and others rally their sheep followers to deluge the switchboards during CIR votes. It is a very old game and most people are on to it. This was clearly illustrated during ANTI CIR national rallies in Washington conducted by some of these groups when less than 100 people showed up.

Most Americans do want Immigration Reform and an end to the Hate Talk the ANTI CIR groups foster.

ultima said...

Dee wrote, "This is also a Humanitarian vs Non-Humanitarian issue."

LOL The American people are known for their humanitarian efforts all over the world whether it be the fight against AIDS in Africa or earthquake relief in Asia. This is not a humanitarian issue. It is an issue related to national sovereignty, the rule of law, the national interest, our standard of living, and our quality of life. If you are in favor of those items, the course of action needed is clear. If not it is disloyalty not humanitarianism, ethnocentrism rather than regard for one's fellow citizens.

ultima said...

I don't see where Kondracke stated the election was lost because of the immigration stance of some Republicans and Democrats. Everyone, including Kondracke, knows why. Besides the wars, the financial meltdown, and an unpopular president(partly because of his stance on immigration reform)what other explanation is needed. There is one and that is Black racism that caused the Blacks to vote for Obama at an astounding rate, much higher than White democrats. In fact, it is obvious from the voting results that Hillary would have been the democratic candidate except for that racism.

If CIR passes in 2009 or 2010, it will only be because the above factors enabled the Neolibs to take over the Congress and the White House, not because Republicans took a particular position on CIR.

When talking about telephone calls to Congress re: CIR, you overlook the fact that La Raza and a dozen other such ethnocentric organization did the same thing. Moreover, you suggest that all those who called were "sheep" and that they were incapable of thinking for themselves. That is grossly insulting and is no more true of the pro-America movement than it is for the anti-America i<"movimiento">.

Anonymous said...

Ultima,

If I were a woman, I would kiss you right now! Your replies were perfect. Your facts are right on. Thanks for making my day.

Dee said...

Ultima,
You are obviously living in denial. To deny the atrocities in the Detention Centers, the Hate Crimes, the Racial Profiling, is living with blinders on.

You remind me of the elitists who give money to unknown charities yet treat their servants like crap.

ultima said...
Dee wrote, "This is also a Humanitarian vs Non-Humanitarian issue."

Ultima said....
LOL The American people are known for their humanitarian efforts all over the world whether it be the fight against AIDS in Africa or earthquake relief in Asia.

Dee said...

The RNC is scrambling to change their agenda to be more inclusive yet you still remain in denial. Obviously others do not agree with your OPINION.


ultima said...
I don't see where Kondracke stated the election was lost because of the immigration stance of some Republicans and Democrats.

Dee said...

Ulty,
You are getting your definitions confused. Racism denotes race-based prejudice, violence, discrimination, or oppression. In other words those non minorities who voted against Obama because he was Black. This was prevalent in many areas, particularly in the Oklahoma Ozark area and many rural areas.

What you are speaking of is kinship. Ex: Irish voting for Irish, Italian for Italian, etc.


Ultima said..
There is one and that is Black racism that caused the Blacks to vote for Obama at an astounding rate, much higher than White democrats.

boriqua said...

There are so many pressing issues, unemployment, housing market etc.
We have immigration laws -let's follow the law and deport the illegal aliens that are here and stop any further illegals from entering our country. Time to interpret the Constitution the way it was meant to be. No more illegals having babies here and those babies being automatic US citizens. At least one parent should be an American citizen for the baby to have citizenship. If we have to add an Amendment to do it, so be it.

Superdestroyer said...

President-Elect Obama wants to expanded entitlements to include free college, free medical care, and maybe a gauranteed government job. The question is how can the U.S. possibly afford an expanding welfare system while maintain a system of open borders and unlimited immigration.

How high will taxes go on the middle class to fund all of the new entitlement and to provide them to millions of illegal aliens.

If President-elect Obama wants a policy of open borders and unlimited immigration, he will have to give up his healthcare reforms, his educational reforms, his environmental reforms, his transportation reform.s

Aslso, what is the point of going trillions of dollars into debt to create 4 million new jobs if the U.S. is going to maintain open borders and unlimited immigration? If most of the jobs go to illegal aliens, he recessions will be more severe, last longer, and craete more long term debt.

Dee said...

SD,
Education & Healthcare are critical if we are to succeed as a nation.


Superdestroyer said...
President-Elect Obama wants to expanded entitlements to include free college, free medical care, and maybe a gauranteed government job. The question is how can the U.S. possibly afford an expanding welfare system while maintain a system of open borders and unlimited immigration.

Anonymous said...

Yes, education and healthcare are important to keep our country successful. That is precisely why we should discourage illegal immigration and limit legal immigration so that our citizens receive quality eduacation and healthcare instead of overcrowded schools and hospitals. Our taxpayers dollars for these two critical items should only go to support citizen needs.

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